It is probably for the nth time that I’m hearing that the development of frontier AI models need to be slowed — but an extra warning wouldn’t cost anyone, would it? The magnitude of the threat AI poses is huge: models are escaping controlled environments, ‘acting like coordinated swarms’, and mass-attacking platforms online. Recursive self-improvement (RSI) may outpace AI models’ eventual alignment with human values and it may be too late before we say sorry for the consequences. The AI investment boom — note, a bubble — is growing at frenzied proportions — and before long, it will, as will all such hyped developments, burst. Investors must heed to the risks. An editorial I read this morning suggested issuing the same level of safeguards and testing standards as used for nuclear development.
Now let’s take a closer look at the French protests. The Economist estimates that the protesters fall into three groups. To the first belongs the students, teachers, and everyone affected by the faulty welfare system — ‘genuine’ ones if you want to put it that way. Their protests were largely peaceful. Their main grievances were the cost of living crisis and underinvestment in education. The second group comprises the casseurs or the rioters. They are often fully covered in black and sport a helmet. They burn buildings, pick fights and create a mayhem. One newspaper editorial (see France’s Undeniable Right to Riot, & Rest) playfully quipped that even rioters, by virtue of being French, are in the habit of taking their lunch breaks, demanding daily wages and a proper work-life balance as their job is demanding and require great physical labour. A night-time arson may call for additional hardship allowances!
In the last category are the opportunistic looters who have been smashing store-fronts, stealing luxury goods and later selling them on websites online (the authorities were thankfully quick to take them down.)
The number of police personnel deployed was far less than during the worst days of gilets jaunes. People had to fend for themselves amid the onslaught. Donald Trump added fuel to fire by claiming that France was being “burnt to the ground by migrants.” However it was obvious on the ground that most protestors were French. Mr. Macron accuses foreign organisations of manipulating the narrative of the protest. For example, an AI-generated image of Palestinian flag atop Eiffel Tower gained quick traction online. There was a lot of fear-mongering too, pointed at migrants. This is a common refrain whenever France is at the edge of some violent outburst.
The extreme left and the right are the real beneficiaries from the unrest. They have been reaping off the discontent by branding the centrist government as unstable and incapable. Jean Luc Melenchon and his left party Unsubmissive France (LFI) finds strong support among the young and in the banlieues, or suburbs. Marine Le Pen, his right-wing counterpart’s, ratings too have increased. The centre is thinning out.
The Presidential elections are around the corner. Macron cannot run again as he has exhausted his two term limit. Melenchon looks best poised to take over the mantle this time but one cannot be sure.
The crux of the issue is the welfare system at stake in France. There’s a mismatch between its fiscal constraints and social contract. As successive governments have less fiscal room to manoeuvre on account of high debt and expenditure, they resort to austerity measures which are unpopular with citizens — such as increasing pension age. Poor households battling material insecurity consider these measures as inequitably harming their (read lower classes) interests while keeping the upper classes rich.
However the street violence, political instability and economic stasis dampen investor confidence making financing even necessary expenditure difficult. What France needs is a sustainable fiscal paths with adequate protection for the poor and vulnerable while keeping political polarisation and extremism at bay through dialogue and engagement. The cradle of modern democracy and free speech must ensure that it caters to all its citizens. It is also a reputational crisis. As I write this, Gen-Z protests have broken out in Germany over poor living conditions.
For some light-hearted bit this week, let’s look at the weight-loss drugs market. It’s been a season of rich dividends for investors. Ozempic and Wegovy are the big sharks in the market. GLP-1 users, being calorie-conscious, has set the whole protein-snack business running due to their high demand. Pubs are going out of business though, for obvious reasons. The tailoring and alteration units are doing well because of customers turning up to them to prune their outfits. Cosmetic clinics are minting money out of the new collagen and face-plumping treatments they’ve been selling to cure the so-called “Ozempic face.” There is a whole new line of food-oriented fragrances are becoming popular as weight-loss obsessed wonks look to other sources to satiate their appetite. In short, the market is running on steroids, with the madness showing no signs of abating soon. How lucky is the prudent investor who staked their money in these early.
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