The Unsaturated Reader

Tag: france

  • Macron’s risky gamble and a political impasse

    In 2016, a young French politician created a centrist party. He named it ‘En Marche!’ meaning, ‘Forward!’. At the time, it was one of a kind of revolution in French politics. The young politician, Emmanuel Macron, went on to serve for two terms, but the latter one has been shaky, a result of having been forced to run a minority government plodding through issue-based alliances. Little would he have assumed eight years ago that his party would have severe compromises to make and save its face in the face of a surge of extremist alliances, on the left and the right. In the European elections last month, the far-right bloc comprising many hard-right parties including France’s National Rally and Spain’s Vox, made massive gains. In a bid to stem its rise and testify public support to his party, Macron called for snap elections on June 10th.  

    In what has been termed a ‘risky gamble’ by the mainstream media, France is looking over a fractious polity. Macron wanted to stem the far-right’s rise at all costs; to him, Marine Le Pen could not be handed over a free-wheeling victory, so he dissolved the parliament and declared elections. Though the initial round of voting caused concern among centrist and leftist circles, with strong demonstrations against it in metropolitan regions like Paris, the concerns were allayed when the left and the centre hobbled together to strike a deal and form a ‘republican front’. Candidates belonging to either the left or the centre pulled out from seats depending on their winnability; the candidate with lesser prospects of winning stepped down in order to not split the anti-right vote. The result had Jean-Luck Mélechon’s leftist alliance pecking first after the second round of vote, the Macronists of the centre following closely behind, and the national rally led by Le Pen which came third being handed a momentous defeat. After the results were announced, Le Pen said, ‘The tide is rising, but it has not risen high enough this time…our victory is only delayed.’ The formation of such anti-right fronts are not unprecedented in France. Le Pen’s father too, who was then the head (and the founder) of the party, was handed a similar defeat in 2002. The party then, home to several nazi-era collaborators, was accused of being virulently anti-semitic. 15 years later, in 2017, his daughter too was dealt a similar blow, defeated by Macron again. This is the second time she’s facing a strategic defeat of this kind. 

    On the night of the first round of voting streets in Paris thronged with protesters chanting at the top of their lungs the infamous Spanish civil war slogan “They shall not pass!” in an act of dissent against Le Pen and her party’s policies. Mbappe and his colleagues in the national football team declared in one of their pre-match conferences that the French public must do everything keep out the far-right from power. “I want to be proud of wearing this shirt,” he said. 

    However with the olympics just a week away, a political impasse looms over France. With no party attaining a clear majority, the next step for Macron and French politics looks uncertain. Gabriel Attal, the Prime Minister, has resigned. However he will remain the head of a caretaker government to ensure everything proceeds smoothly for the Olympics. The Paris mayor Annie Hidalgo swam through —as the French redditors say— ‘E-coli infested’ Seine river, whose faecal content and sewage has become a matter of joke, to implicitly prove that it’s been cleaned and is all set for the Olympics. Paris had been taking several measures to develop the city especially the suburbs in the run up to the Olympic games. A few months ago France was riled with humungous protests led mostly by the African-Arab community who alleged discrimination, in the aftermath of the killing of a 17-year-old Algerian boy by the police. The farmers too had their own grievances to express, though this was a wider phenomenon across Europe. Macron’s attempts to increase the retirement age too was met with strong opposition. 

    These events tell us that France is a dynamic country with a strong libertarian identity. It has politically conscious people who are not afraid to show their displeasure at the government. Tremors of the political changes that occur in France can be felt across Europe. Its geopolitical heft also explains why it’s such a crucial player in EU politics and the weight its stance on issues carries in Brussels. While for the time being Macron may have succeeded in keeping the National Rally quiet, the turbulence wreaked by Le Pen’s rhetoric and ideas can be felt on the ground. An imminent Marine Le Pen Presidency in 2027 cannot be ruled out. 

  • A Macronian Debacle

    A brooding Emmanuel Macron is what the world saw last week in the front pages of elite newspapers. Expectedly, the very French who gave him another chance at running the country has curtly, and prudishly, denied him a majority in the National Assembly. In a momentous first in 30 years, this debacle the voters have landed Macron into, will find him scratching around for votes to get things done. This proves harder than said. As unsurprising as it is, in opinion polls conducted in France before the election on 19th June, Macron did not rate favourably among his countrymen. He is often called the President for the rich, always seen harping on tax-cut and pro-business policies, much to the resentment of the ordinary French. Bakers on the streets selling croissants and toasts, were much eager to let the far-Rightist Marie Le pen call the shots in the first round of Presidential elections. Alas, for this unpopular President, about whom almost everybody in the lower and middle classes take an uncharitable view, the political reality couldn’t have been harsher. To win the heart of the populace, a Macronian course-correction is needed. A welfarist orientation (?) is on the cards. But what is more cruel is that the country simply does not have the money. 

    Much to the elated declamations on the productivity of the elderly vis-a-vis the restless young, much of France would rather like to have their retirement ages lowered than pulled up. Jean-Luc-Melechon of the radical left is another favourite of a section of voters who feel isolated from the mainstream prosperity race that France seems to caught in, with Macron leading the way. Not all of France is as glitzy and flamboyant as tourist guides want to make it seem. 

    The institution of French presidency, as its monarchical history reveals, gives him enough powers to push through reforms in the face of oppositional unrest. But that would him make him deeply unpopular, adding more fuel to the fire. He will have to change his style, become more accommodative, pragmatic and analytic in his approach, and appeal to particular parities on either side of the opposition to help get things through. For instance, he could, if negotiations are hammered out persuasively, count on the Greens to pass the much-vaunted (and much-needed) energy transition bills. Again, this too is easier said than done. It all depends on how Macron realigns his politics of authority, often overstepping blunt secularism, to concede space to divergent opinions. 

    As we saw in Germany, where the political parties constitutive of the traffic light coalition, the Social Democratic Party, the Free Democratic Party, and the Greens, had to deliberate for months to form a constructive government, France too is a victim of a similar tradition. France, to the glee of Europe, yearns to be looked upon as a major European power. Especially with the exit of Angela Merkel, that role seems to have shifted on to Emmanuel Macron. If Macron fails to do his job right, given the troublesome French (and largely European or Nordic) tradition, as hesitant as it is in knocking around with partners (not to mention the “Swedes don’t invite kids over dinner” row), his days at the office will be numbered, and a “Viva la France!” will struggle to see the light of the day.