The Unsaturated Reader

Category: Uncategorized

  • A no-nonsense 2025

    Saying out loud ‘2024’ has a certain ring to it. 2024 set out with the grand claim of being the year nearly half the world’s population would go to the polling booths. As we close in on the year, the events of the past eleven months have surely satiated the prophesiers. On July 13th, at a rally in Pennsylvania, we were witness to an attempt to assassinate Trump, a worn-out character then. Now here we are. Kopites at the Anfield (yes we are diverting) wept when Jurgen Klopp during that emotional (fawn-y) afternoon on May 20th bid farewell to Liverpool Football Club. The sentimental ones thought he was irreplaceable,  whose fist bumps thundered down the four stands of the Anfield. But here we are. It looks like the bald Dutch-nobody who was slotted into his place (pun intended) isn’t having a bad time after all. Nor is Mr. Trump. 

    To call 2024 eventful in an abstract sense would be trite, for every year is a treasury of events. The four numerals on paper are defined and remembered by the events that make it; it would be a non-existential semantic nonsense without it. Asymmetry of information from different parts of the world and a fundamental distrust are the themes that stood out to me this year. A “mad-man” at the helm of the most powerful country on earth to top it all. And perhaps his tech-genius square-faced acolyte (also known as X-lord). That the electorate has moved to the right is what political observers would say — from the perspective of centrist political parties, there’s some “catching up” to do (Macron comes to mind). Hardcore leftists will say centrists are radical right-wingers disguised in the garb of neo-progressive-conservatism. Maybe they’re right. Maybe not. It is not productive to dwell on such political (nonsense-) semantics again. Practically, it hasn’t reaped much. In the academia, perhaps some fodder for closed-door theoretical debates in unreadable, unaccessible, lofty journals. 

    The big predictions for 2025 have arrived. Did the predictions for 2024 age well? One thing is clear, while at the start of December last year Trump seemed like a remote possibility, the repercussions of such an incident being discussed in a jiffy as a non-negotiable ritual, now it’s become an indigestible reality. The entertainer has catapulted the masses to clinch a soaring victory. No more “didn’t win the popular vote” nonsense, he may have thought; he showed up at the heavy blue states, like his beloved New York for instance, to tilt the popular vote in his favour. Everything that has happened in 2024 appears hazy in comparison to the results on November 4th, for that has and will change the course of everything that is set to happen and gives everything that came before it a bittersweet flavour — on a lighter note, it is the feeling when kids who don’t quite know each other are thrust into the same room as a burly old man. They do not quite belong, yet history will sew them in the grand narrative of the events that preceded (and shaped) the biggest comeback in political history. 

    We all agree on this: Trump is the mad-man in the room. The theory was hypothesised during the time of Richard Nixon to play up his supposed irrationality and volatility in making decisions so that the communist bloc would scamper to avoid a negative reaction from him by cobbling a mutually non-adversarial settlement. This could happen well again, albeit with his NATO or even Chinese counterparts. But make no mistake, because his close aides (who are now off his books) claim that he is pragmatic despite the occasional crankiness and volatility. He’s a supreme entertainer who speaks ‘truth’ the way masses want to hear it. There’s more to Trump than there is, and 2025 will be a testament to that, be it for the good or the bad. 

    A politically suave deal-maker with an incorrigible belief in transactional alliances. Mr. Trump’s economic principles are clear: he wants to make America great again — harkening back to a non-existent mythical past — he’ll not let the trade partners who are apparently ‘cheating’ on America go scot-free, and his answer to any country that may pose a threat to the American economy? Tariffs. How about meeting America’s skyrocketing debt levels? Tariffs; making up for proposed tax cuts in revenue? Tariffs. As Tom Standage, the Economist’s deputy editor put it, Trump thinks Tariffs are some kind of magic money tree. The less exciting aspect of it is that it’s going to drive up prices for ordinary Americans. Legend has it that many of his supporters figured out what tariffs meant after the election. 

    All in all, the US has become an overstretched power. The gap between what the US is capable of, and the demands placed on it — which is usually expected of it — will grow in 2025. A snarky White House establishment will have much reckoning to do with a non-quite-in-its-control world order. 

    A big player, if not the big player, in that hitherto novel world order is China. To be fair, for all its autocracy and anti-western ideals, China does boast of some good ideas and achievements. That it may have gorged on coal is one thing, but it is at the forefront in the adoption of renewable energy technologies. It is host to the world’s biggest reserves of rare earth. Just how the US closed its doors to exports of semiconductor technology to Beijing, the latter is pepped up for a tit-for-tat. The imposition of tariffs next year could mark the intensification of an already fierce trading rivalry. Companies in the US can still boast of an edge in chip-making — they’re designed in America and manufactured in China’s estranged sibling, Taiwan — but this has only emboldened China to produce better (even less pricier) alternatives. Some of the best semiconductor models in the industry are Chinese. The US may no longer have a monopoly over, simply, chips. 

    It has become trendy for world leaders to proclaim that they must decouple their economies. Often the villain is China. But Europe has also been quietly insisting on becoming independent from the big guy across the Atlantic too. The idealistic centrist Macron has been the most vociferous advocate of it. Alas, only if the efforts to realise it could compare to the grand pronouncements. Decoupling is hard; factories and industries are not lego blocks to be removed and propped up anywhere we please. We are talking about cars and electronics. There are costs, contracts, relations, and even livelihoods at stake. Companies can’t jet off to any country as soon as it shows prospects of a burgeoning, cheap labour force. 

    Therefore, whether we like it or not, it is an interconnected world, with a few destructible walls erected here and there. Europe this year has been strikingly averse to tourism; Catalans with heads in their hands are storming the streets every month or so with anti-tourist protests. The main argument is that tourists are driving up local rental prices; more like rentiers want to lease rooms and apartments to once-in-a-lifetime visitors who are willing to pay more than local inhabitants. In this writer’s opinion, it should be a matter of regulative policies and incentives. The angst is misdirected. But this emotional disequilibrium has cleared the way for new entrants: enter the oil-giants of the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has been promoting tourism in a bid to diversify its oil-dependent economy. Along with hosting football world cup, Usyk vs Fury, a 38-something Cristiano Ronaldo… choke, choke, did I mention LIV Golf? 

    Global debts have swelled, in large part fuelled by pandemic-era spending. Many advanced economies have unsustainable deficits (honourable mention: USA) — could this entice a move to austerity? America under Trump will like to remain aloof, oblivious to the wars of the world — some of which it has had a tiny hand in — and as solipsists would have it, focus inwards. This will prompt many countries to jack up their spending on defence. Space is becoming militarised (and cluttered). This turn of events will not dent the US economy or the image of its strong economy however. Expect a capital influx into Uncle Sam’s economy; the dopamine shot of a MAGA homecoming has been irresistible for investors. 

    The fate of Crypto is a little shaky. Artificial intelligence has not (yet) lived up to its hype. More than $1 trillion have been poured into AI infrastructure. The investors are becoming wary . But it could be precisely when the latter becomes disillusioned that the technology might pick up — the same was said of crypto, but again, here we are. It could make or break the future. The bottomline, as with domestic and geo-politics, is to expect the unbelievable. For one, who thought the sponge-bob-faced Elon Musk who starred in a sensible guest role in the mighty Big Bang Theory years ago would head a government department titled ‘DOGE’ with another square-faced (slightly smaller) pretentious eccentric (you-know-who)? 

    Hardcore realism is the fad — why would the plebeian not fancy a bit of combative politics? — with its attendant unnerving social phenomena — hear ‘racismo’? A transactional world than an ideological world; differences in ideology does not necessarily beget a reset in trade ties unlike alignments in the cold war era. Putin doesn’t think the rules apply to him, much to the delight of his autocrat-admirers around the world. The BRICS truly are a motley of strange bedfellows; the only principle that holds them together is their shared suspicion of the West regardless of their internal skirmishes — China was sitting in India’s backyard until very recently a deescalation-agreement of sorts was cobbled up. 

    And lastly, but certainly the irritant Democrats had at the top of their heads during the middle of the year— Biden’s age and his fragility and as with age, his adamance to step down from candidature. In a survey reported by The Economist, more rich/democratic/both countries around the world seem to favour younger leaders. A breath of fresh air, youth, dynamism is being preferred to the same-old-stock of politicians. The notable exception of course is America. Well, if Trump thinks he is as young as JD Vance, and his supporters chime in, who’s stopping him? Coming to the practical aspect of the issue, much of the rich world is ageing and China seeks to work around it by encouraging a silver economy — a market economy that caters to the old. The point is to shift the perception about them being a ‘burden’ on the economy by accommodating them in economically productive ways. Japan’s baby boomers, who’ll cross an average age of 75 next year, can look forward to something similar if the plan materialises as intended. 

    There it is, fresh perspectives for an unrevealed, neatly packed 2025. Change, turbulence, technological optimism (and doomsaying) are expected to prevail, but what unites humans from across the political spectrum is hope. The hope for change. What may be progress for one lot, could be destruction for the other. But it’s hope in its positive connotation that dones different hats that’s the shared emotion. Every person has an ideology, for indifference is also an ideology. And for all that 2024 has given us, we can be certain (and if you’re into that sort of thing,’hope’) that 2025 will be no less interesting, if not more. We are humans and it doesn’t hurt to be incorrigible optimists—at least until you reach the last word of this muse— so here’s to a no-nonsense 2025! 

  • A Trump 2.0 shouldn’t be a surprise

    With just over four days to go for the election, much is at stake for the United States and the world. The numbers are confounding, and the race painfully close. If it’s abortion for Harris, for Trump it’s immigration. Two subjects the Pope is displeased with (as the Pope expressed last month . the former more so than the latter. He exhorted the Catholic faithful to choose the “lesser of two evils.” 

    While it may seem inarguable that many would want someone prudent helming the White House, voter choices go beyond mere testimonies of competency and sound policies. Donald Trump may be all wack and rubbish to the dispassionate observer sitting afar on the other side of the globe. But to his domestic conservative-leaning audience, he’s a messiah. Somehow he has mastered the art of discerning people’s fears and putting them in sensible*, digestible terms even if it may sound stupid. GDP, growth, figures, indices etc are important in governance but they matter less when it comes to the behavioural influences that make up a voter’s mind. It’s easy to blame the economy’s woes on the people who don’t look like you, even if it is neither rational nor ideal — concepts that matter little to those running the Republican campaign. A quick-fix solution by throwing sand on people’s eyes. These are the classic tricks and manoeuvres every demagogue has up their sleeve. 

    Trump has the uncanny ability to translate the banal to one that pricks the collective conscience, like in the case of Haitians allegedly eating pets. His simplistic rhetorical style, that could only vie with that of a middle-schooler, void of any turn of phrase, something similar to rambling, IS for all its shortcomings, appealing to voters. It appeals to the average red-neck American who looks at the glitzy Democratic National Conventions with a feeling of derision and envy. He may be a tycoon, but his assurances speak to countless working-class Americans, home-makers, unemployed youth and reflect their deepest concerns. 

     It would be hard to deny there’s also a tinge of sexism at play here albeit in indiscernible ways since Harris took over. An increasing number of African-Americans, Latinos, even Indian-Americans too have been flocking to the Republican camp.

    As much as one may haver on about the economy, what voters irrespective of their education or financial status immediately understand without any subject-specific prerequisites and might have an opinion about are social issues. The age of wokeism has begun receding and people are becoming more conservative in their social outlook. Had this been only a phenomenon observed in boomers it would have been less a cause for concern. But data suggests that young men are moving to the right (while young women are among the most progressive cohorts). A polarisation in worldviews across genders and age-groups await us. 

    All of which points to why a second Trump presidency is not unthinkable. Harris is also seen as being light on policies and harping on the abortion narrative excessively despite its growing irrelevance for a fair share of the women population. Contrary to conventional thinking, abortion rates have declined since Roe v. Wade in 1971. Nor are all women hinged on the liberal women’s rights outlook. The sneer at ‘childless cat ladies’ has found favour among many middle-aged women in the US, Swifties’ lamentations regardless.

    A second Trump homecoming was touted to be dark and dangerous for the future of the country during the start of Harris’ campaign, and given how she had catapulted into fame after the gigantic convention at Chicago, Trump 2.0 seemed like an impossibility. Now the world is looking at the face of the very same darkness and danger that Americans seem to have unabashedly embraced. MAGA may not have seen its time yet. 

  • World Ahead 2024

    The Economist comes out with its ‘World Ahead’ at the end of every year showcasing its predictions and things to look out for the next year. I have been a regular reader (and viewer) of this annual ritual and the insights have been particularly illuminating. To be fair, they’re not ‘predictions’ in the strict sense of the word but the newspaper’s thoughts on prospective changes for the next three sixty five days have mostly been on point. Or so they make it seem. But in reality, how well have they fared? Does it live up to its hype? 

    The answer is in the affirmative. For instance, the year 2024 was one that was expected to be eventful. And the newspaper did a great job at throwing light on the different issues in different quarters of the world that would the forthcoming twelve months and indirectly weaving them into a narrative that will seem coherent to the eye that sees the big picture. 

    Almost half of the world’s population have gone on (or are going) to vote this year. An incredible statistic but elections are not necessarily a marker of democracy. Sham elections held to gain false legitimacy nationally and internationally have increasingly become the norm under illiberal regimes. The results of US elections are going to be consequential. Europe and Ukraine by extension must prepare for a potential homecoming-of-sorts of a Trump Presidency. China, Trump’s favourite bugbear, is growing albeit slowly. But that doesn’t stop the threat to American unipolarity which has sharply been dwindling. We are witnessing the rise of a multipolar world; America has become an ‘overstretched power’ in the words of Tom Standage, The Economist’s editor. Decoupling with China isn’t easy; manufacturing houses can shift their bases to neighbouring countries like Vietnam and India (China + 1 strategy) but the components are still being sourced from China. And that dependency may not end any time soon. The need to mitigate climate change have driven the West to mineral-rich countries such as Chile, Argentina, Brazil, New Caledonia etc. Middle powers are gaining leverage. As for the global economy—which had been ailing for a while courtesy the pandemic and picked up pace in the wake of the post-pandemic spending boom encouraged by lavish doles and generous spending programmes— it hasn’t cured of the by-large-pandemic-induced inflation curse yet. But long-term high interest rates could affect people and businesses. Artificial intelligence is the latest fad in the town, the new kid in the block about whom some are raving and some are complaining. It can aid the efficient and make a loser of the lazy. It enables faster coding but dishes out faster plagiarism-proof essays too. Powers to orchestrate disinformation campaigns and torpedo job markets can make it less desirable in the immediate future. But Silicon Valley is pumped up; it ain’t waiting for anybody. Zuckerberg is brooding in his idealistic metaverse. The elephant in the room the US keeps trying to ignore, the war in Gaza, may not abate anytime soon despite the killing of several Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists. Much of the world outside the US-AIPAC nexus is becoming sympathetic to the cause of Palestine. Their plight are not going unheard. In such a fractured world, with Russia, China, North Korea, Iran and the like moving to one end and the allies of the West split somewhere in the middle, becoming increasingly skeptical of the US’ agendas, the prospects for a united world are dim. When a squabble comes calling on the shores of Taiwan, will the US come to the latter’s aid? To Asia it has indeed pivoted, but to anchor itself amid China’s string of pearls is the challenge. Sink may it not, wishes the Washington tsars. 

  • It’s Kamala Harris time, at least for now

    The glistening white smile of the woman born to an African father and an Indian mother who was annointed the vice president of the United States just four years ago is surely something everybody will have noticed. It fuelled a spate of online memes, gifs, and clips. “Kamala is brat” bawled the famous singer charli xcx the day after she was nominated by President Biden after the latter took the (late) decision to step down. A jubilant Kamala Harris grooving with some pretty intricate steps to the beats of a catchy music with kids playing around is something that’ll delight the eye. If officially nominated by the Democratic Party (which warrants the Obamas’ endorsement who unusually have been holding out) she’ll be the first Black, Afro-American, Indian-American woman to be nominated. And if the results are kind to her on November 4th, she may well make history.

    Critics describe her as being ‘dangerously liberal’. One of ultra-conservatives’ biggest obsessions, abortion laws, will ratchet up straight to the top of her agenda by virtue of her being a woman alone. Harsher voices in the liberal mainstream allege that she lacks the charisma to take on Trump. And crucially that she lacks time to consolidate the voter base of the Democratic party. While there’s a partial truth to these claims, it is not unresolvable. She may lack the charisma of a political personality but she has the intelligence and vigour to demolish the lies of the 80-edging demagogue. Her qualities as a litigator and a prosecutor will come in handy in the fiery debates we can expect between the two candidates in the months to come. 

    Another shortcoming perceived by the skeptical few within the democratic party is that since she hails from a state, California, that is a democratic stronghold, that she does not bring a swing state with her. This will have to be remedied by being cautious about the vice-presidential pick. John Shapiro, the popular governor of Pennsylvania, is best placed to take up the candidature. 

    “You think you fell out of a coconut tree?” is one of her popular phrases that became viral after a speech she gave in 2023 in which she talks about how her mother “gave them [the kids] a hard time”. At one point, on a philosophical note, she said, “I don’t know what’s wrong with you young people, you think you just fell out of a coconut tree? You exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you,” — which on the face of it is accurate, despite netizens bleating about her speech being ‘crazy’. At a broader level, we’re also shaped by the socio-political-cultural context we were born into. Like light shining through the chink of a curtain, it gives us a peak into her identity and the struggles she has had to deal with to make it to where she is today. 

    Critics like the British Etonian public-school-boy Rory Stewart will make a fuss about her candidacy being ‘coronated’ of sorts. That argument is a tad underwhelming primarily due to the paucity of time. Holding an open contest in search of a nominee would in fact throw the party into a disarray, scrambling for funds with no time being devolved to the actual presidential campaign, while Donald Trump gets all the time in the world to consolidate his base. 

    Had Biden stepped down in March, the circumstances would’ve looked different, paving the way for the new candidate to fully establish themselves in the scene, like Lyndon Johnson did several decades ago. A reluctant Joe Biden for well over two weeks had been defying calls from prominent members of the party and donors to step down from the race who had been (rightly) concerned about his fitness to run for the office. Four months is not a lot of time, but can reap results if utilised to counter the threat posed by Trump and the ultra-conservative Republicans through effective information-based campaigning. For Trump, lies galore, and truth is the only formidable weapon, at least in this writer’s perspective, that can trump lies. While we sink to our couches to see what becomes of the Democratic party’s official candidature, it’s Kamala Harris’ time, at least for now. There’s much to take pride in, and much to be relieved about, again, at least for now. 

  • Macron’s risky gamble and a political impasse

    In 2016, a young French politician created a centrist party. He named it ‘En Marche!’ meaning, ‘Forward!’. At the time, it was one of a kind of revolution in French politics. The young politician, Emmanuel Macron, went on to serve for two terms, but the latter one has been shaky, a result of having been forced to run a minority government plodding through issue-based alliances. Little would he have assumed eight years ago that his party would have severe compromises to make and save its face in the face of a surge of extremist alliances, on the left and the right. In the European elections last month, the far-right bloc comprising many hard-right parties including France’s National Rally and Spain’s Vox, made massive gains. In a bid to stem its rise and testify public support to his party, Macron called for snap elections on June 10th.  

    In what has been termed a ‘risky gamble’ by the mainstream media, France is looking over a fractious polity. Macron wanted to stem the far-right’s rise at all costs; to him, Marine Le Pen could not be handed over a free-wheeling victory, so he dissolved the parliament and declared elections. Though the initial round of voting caused concern among centrist and leftist circles, with strong demonstrations against it in metropolitan regions like Paris, the concerns were allayed when the left and the centre hobbled together to strike a deal and form a ‘republican front’. Candidates belonging to either the left or the centre pulled out from seats depending on their winnability; the candidate with lesser prospects of winning stepped down in order to not split the anti-right vote. The result had Jean-Luck Mélechon’s leftist alliance pecking first after the second round of vote, the Macronists of the centre following closely behind, and the national rally led by Le Pen which came third being handed a momentous defeat. After the results were announced, Le Pen said, ‘The tide is rising, but it has not risen high enough this time…our victory is only delayed.’ The formation of such anti-right fronts are not unprecedented in France. Le Pen’s father too, who was then the head (and the founder) of the party, was handed a similar defeat in 2002. The party then, home to several nazi-era collaborators, was accused of being virulently anti-semitic. 15 years later, in 2017, his daughter too was dealt a similar blow, defeated by Macron again. This is the second time she’s facing a strategic defeat of this kind. 

    On the night of the first round of voting streets in Paris thronged with protesters chanting at the top of their lungs the infamous Spanish civil war slogan “They shall not pass!” in an act of dissent against Le Pen and her party’s policies. Mbappe and his colleagues in the national football team declared in one of their pre-match conferences that the French public must do everything keep out the far-right from power. “I want to be proud of wearing this shirt,” he said. 

    However with the olympics just a week away, a political impasse looms over France. With no party attaining a clear majority, the next step for Macron and French politics looks uncertain. Gabriel Attal, the Prime Minister, has resigned. However he will remain the head of a caretaker government to ensure everything proceeds smoothly for the Olympics. The Paris mayor Annie Hidalgo swam through —as the French redditors say— ‘E-coli infested’ Seine river, whose faecal content and sewage has become a matter of joke, to implicitly prove that it’s been cleaned and is all set for the Olympics. Paris had been taking several measures to develop the city especially the suburbs in the run up to the Olympic games. A few months ago France was riled with humungous protests led mostly by the African-Arab community who alleged discrimination, in the aftermath of the killing of a 17-year-old Algerian boy by the police. The farmers too had their own grievances to express, though this was a wider phenomenon across Europe. Macron’s attempts to increase the retirement age too was met with strong opposition. 

    These events tell us that France is a dynamic country with a strong libertarian identity. It has politically conscious people who are not afraid to show their displeasure at the government. Tremors of the political changes that occur in France can be felt across Europe. Its geopolitical heft also explains why it’s such a crucial player in EU politics and the weight its stance on issues carries in Brussels. While for the time being Macron may have succeeded in keeping the National Rally quiet, the turbulence wreaked by Le Pen’s rhetoric and ideas can be felt on the ground. An imminent Marine Le Pen Presidency in 2027 cannot be ruled out. 

  • ‘Gibraltar es Español’ 

    So sang a possibly-inebriated Rodri, and moments after the crowd chimed with him. His teammate Morata, who is also the captain of the Spanish National Team said warily, “Mate, you’re playing in England!” To which Rodri replied with a deadpan expression, “I don’t care.” A favourite to win the Ballon D’or, Rodri’s mischievous chant that’s a running joke within the team and the broader Spanish public, has a long eventful history. A story of military interventions, self-determination, calls for decolonisation and so on. Perhaps a little similar to the infamous Argentine insecurity, the Falklands, but not so much. 

    A British overseas territory that lies to the south of Spain, Gibraltar’s history has been a thorn in the unique relationship between Spain and Britain. In 1704, during the Spanish war of succession Gibraltar had succumbed to Spain; however, it was ceded to the British under the Treaty of Utrecht (1714). The transfer was to be for perpetuity, unlike territories like Hong Kong which was leased by China to Britain for 99 years. While by the terms of the treaty the island may have been fully transferred, Spain made several attempts to reclaim it in the following years. A notable attempt was the Great Siege of Gibraltar which took place during the late eighteenth century. 

    Franco and his dictatorial authoritarianism, his bonhomie with Mussolini and Hitler, is well known. In line with his professed ideology which he shared with these continental autarchs, Franco made further attempts to reclaim the island but to no avail. The people of Gibraltar with no qualms expressed their displeasure at going back to Spanish control during two referenda, the latest of which was held in 2002. They’d rather remain Brits, they said. 

    Looks like when you’re once colonised by the English, there evolves a deep-rooted sycophancy to emulate and be ruled by the English, to suck up to the colonial masters, as is evident in the lifestyle choices of many in the Indian subcontinent. They proudly don the hat of a ‘Brown Sahib’, and in this case that of an ‘Inglesa’. 

    Gibraltar is home to a multiplicity of identities, including Moroccan, Spanish, and Indian. A majority of those employed there are Spanish. The territory however is not in the EU yet. It is only a matter of time until Gibraltar falls back under the control of where it rightly belongs. The United Kingdom routinely cites the self-determination of the Gibraltarians and their overwhelming desire to stay with the UK as the case for retaining their control of the Island. And the Brits are happy to keep these tiny islets too so long as they benefit from it financially and militarily. The site had become an important outpost of the British Navy in the twentieth century during the height of the World War.  

    The Gibraltar FA has understandably taken offence at what is now an unofficial chant (akin to ‘Campeone’) of the Spanish team. Many overzealously patriotic Britishers have been glad to rally behind it, adding fuel to fire. I’m presuming a majority are Faragists who are disgruntled that Labour came to power with a 411-seat majority. Gibraltarians may be a little British in their sensibility but garnished with a Spanish flavour. The cultural and economic links with the Iberian giant to the north remain unbreakable too. Would we see the day when Gibraltar becomes an autonomous principality of Spain, like Catalonia? Maybe not. Only time can tell us about the fate of the several thousand Gibraltarians who have been suddenly swarmed by the recently crowned European footballing giant.  

  • Trump’s attempted assassination and America’s murky political atmosphere 

    Trump’s would-be assassinator really did us a service. The already charged political atmosphere in America has now heated up not least due to the conspiracy theories spun out of the Republican mill. Those on the leftist bandwagon on the other hand have gone so far as to claim that it’s been staged, “not a real bullet, you see; a silly pellet”, “the blood should have splattered across his face, just a streak, not convincing” . While factions are getting factionalised further in what is now a routine theatrical campaign mode for Americans there are comparisons with Trump’s apparent heroism in hitting the fist pump amid the chaos as the secret service scrambled to protect him, his ears bleeding, and Biden’s mental and physical fragility, a fact exemplified by his struggle to put together a coherent phrase and climb two stairs. The picture that was clicked by an AFP photographer which has Trump doing the fist pump with the American flag flying in the background is likely to galvanise his support base, and possibly draw in the neutrals. It sets a terrific scene. And gives us a insider perspective into what Hillary Clinton has claimed is his “animal instinct” — the ability to sense every twitch of nerve, understand the weaknesses of the opponent, put himself in the limelight, and real good street-style common sense. His words as the fist was raised were “fight, fight, fight”. Setting aside the perceptible gallantry of the phrase, what’s exactly is this “fight” against? It’s interesting given that it is Trump and his acolytes that had endorsed the apparently “patriotic” rioters to storm the capitol hill. In the last day’s assassination attempt which is unfortunate and troubling for the US, Trump has managed to turn the narrative around him. He is posturing as the one fighting against the establishment.  Even when the bullet pierced his ear, a part of him was sure that he was not going to let go of this opportunity, an opportunity like no other. He has captured the moment.

    On the other side of the political divide we have the frail Biden who can’t speak sensibly for ten minutes straight. The Democratic establishment that has been protecting him for weeks with cover-up and lies stands exposed. From calling Kamala Harris “Vice President Trump” to addressing Ukraine President Zelensky as “President Putin” (even worse) there’s no reason to think that this octogenarian will be capable of leading the government. The septuagenarian Trump may look like a shabby old man, but his will supersedes his physical deficiencies. And he strongly believes that he can beat sleepy-Joe. 

    While Trump’s assassinator may have done ironically done us a service by spiking the political atmosphere, hard-line republicans can’t belt up. Blame has been heaped on the Government for not adequately providing him with security cover. While this claim can be disputed, there are serious concerns about the functioning of the security service in the country. Multiple assassinations against sitting presidents have been attempted in the past — worse, when Obama was the President a shot into the White House went unheeded for four days dismissing it as noise from a nearby construction project, until a house keeper pointed out a broken window. The service has been riled with corruption and ineptitude. This is concerning in a country where arms are wielded freely, so much that we have reached a stage where a twenty-year old can ponder about shooting down a former president running for election. Gun violence is at a historic high and several firing incidents are reported every week. 

    What might have prompted Thomas Crooks’ to carry a rifle to the Pennsylvania rally? What might have persuaded a high-school graduate to turn into a sniper on that odd day? The case makes for an interesting investigation as the boy has been found to be a locally registered member of the Republican party. He is described as being bright at “math” and a “conservative” by his former school-mates. What the truth holds for this odd tale of attempted political murder and for the country as a whole and the tumultuous time it’s been going through remains to be seen. A few things are certain: the killer undertook a dangerous path in his pursuit for killing a popular, polarising figure, succumbing to a counter-fire in the immediate aftermath, and a precious life was lost, that of an unassuming rally-goer who may have never imagined this fate when he stepped out of his house. Trump had been scoring more in poll-ratings after the depressing debate and during the days in the run up to the assassination. Now his re-election, the prospect of a dangerous Trump 2.0 at the White House, on November 5th looks increasingly probable. 

  • Rushdie, ‘Haroun’ and ‘the Sea of Stories’

    Rushdie, ‘Haroun’ and ‘the Sea of Stories’

    ‘Haroun and the Sea of Stories’ is a fantastical tale — a tale we wish to revel in, the tale we wish, someday, would be our own. On the way we meet a storyteller Rashid who can spurn stores out of thin air, his wife who has a beautiful voice, and his only son Haroun. Rashid is renowned for his ability to transpose people to another realm through his invective tales. Politicians often hire him to woo voters because of his ability to keep people hooked through his marvellous storytelling. It is said none but he alone can have such a grasp over listeners’ attention. But one day all goes awry as Rashid’s wife leaves him for an unpleasant neighbour who keeps asking a question that seems to have struck a chord with Rashid’s wife, “what is the point of stories that aren’t even true?”. Soon afterwards, Rashid finds himself bereaved of that magical superpower that had rendered him invulnerable for long – the power to create stories. Haroun is devastated and Rashid becomes literally speechless. Every time Rashid attempts to narrate a story to the crowd all that comes out is a croak, much to his embarrassment and disappointment. Moreover Rashid and Co., live in a ‘sad’ city, “a city so ruinously sad that it has forgotten its name.”  

    Wherefrom does Rashid’s magic to create stories out of nowhere emanate? The sea of stories. But Rashid’s downturn of sorts is speculated to be the result of a despotic tyrant in the ‘Land of Chup (Silence)’ Khattam-Shud who wants the sea of stories to be poisoned (quite a devilish bloke!). As the name suggests, the inhabitants of the Land of Chup glorify silence and darkness; just a streak of light would blind them. 

    The story takes may turns hereupon; leapfrogging our way through, we find Haroun and his father at a politician’s chuckhole. During the night, when everybody’s sleeping, Haroun encounters the water genie who is responsible for the story tap through which tales metaphorically gush out enabling Rashid to tell stories. Haroun wants to cure his father’s ailment, and so he embarks on an adventure with the water genie. On the way, he meets a magical bird ‘Hoopoe’, ‘Plentimaw fishes’ and many wholesome characters. Towards the close of the mysterious journey they end up at a kingdom. To his surprise Haroun meets his father there. Fables of wisdom, betrayal, friendship, and the usual feuds, yarn along the corridors of the kingdom. In the end, Haroun manages to finish off ‘Khattam-Shud’ whose name means “completely finished” (as it ought to be). Rashid regains his voice and power of making stories. The father and the son return home, and the city in which they’ve been dwelling secures a fitting name for itself, ‘Kahani’. Miraculously, Rashid’s long-lost wife is home too.

    Haroun is perhaps one of us. Just as the son of the story-teller Rashid — who finds more pleasure in pumping blahs into the ears of unsuspecting denizens than staring at his wife throughout the day — the reader too is transposed into a realm of limitless imagination. From birds that can read your mind, to princesses that sing with their unpleasant voices, ‘Haroun and the Sea of Stories’ is a complete fantasy, and a humorous one at that. 

    Rashid has indescribable powers for conjuring up stories out of thin air.  In a land of unforgiving agony, it is stories that enliven the spirit of the townsfolk. But one day everything goes topsy-turvy. Salman Rushdie manages to transpose the gloom that impregnates the situation into one of enervating joy with an Arabian Nights-esque candour giving the reader plenty to revel in. The brilliance of Rushdie is marked by his ability to pull off this feat — of mixing a formidable threesome: magic, humour, adventure — a feat so incredible few in the literary world would be able, and willing, to emulate. To Rushdie the master storyteller here’s a fellow Haroun’s love. 

  • Ireland : 100 years of ups and downs

    More than a century ago, Ireland broke apart. To the south, were the Catholics who wanted to become independent and on the north (or north-east), were the Protestants who wanted to stay with the United Kingdom. But the blighted unease of the Southerners with the inhabitants to the north-east of the little island date back to centuries. Perhaps, one could blame the British, for failing to grant the will of the people, as they’ve always done in colonies around the world. The British being British after all. 

    The Easter Rising in 1916 spelled doom for the largely Protestant British rulers who had been fighting a costly World War I. It was the second major rebellion by the Irish republicans who sought an independent Ireland. Granted their wishes, did the British, but by carving out a free state for the Catholics in the South, which was hardly a solution to their concerns. The Irish War of Independence, fought in 1919 by the Irish Republican Army (IRA), led to the signing of the Anglo-Irish Treaty in 1921. During that year, a border was drawn, rending Ireland into two portions, ensuring that the Protestant dominant regions remained at the North and the rest at the South. This explains the unusually jagged border of Ireland that forever changed the politics of the UK.

    In the process, one community suffered, the disgruntled minority Catholics in the north. To defend themselves, the Catholics took the aid of the old Irish Republican Army (IRA) and waged an armed struggle against the British.  Fast-forward, three decades later, the ‘Troubles’ began, notorious for the vile heroics of the Irish Republican Army, deaths, and much suffering. 3500 deaths, 400 of which came during the 90s. And the latter, when security and intelligence services had been at flying at a reasonably advanced state. But at the end of it all, with much wresting and persuasion, a remarkable agreement was struck — the Belfast (or the Good Friday) agreement in 1998. It is an archetypal deal, with concessions and powers apportioned to each side considerably. Governance of the region was marked by a power-sharing agreement. Consensus of both, unionists and nationalists are required for key bills to pass. A referendum is to be conducted if a majority of the region’s inhabitants wishes independence and union with the Republic of Ireland. No room for the majority Protestants faff about, and thump the rest under their feet and at the same time enough safeguards assuring the Catholic minority. 

    For three decades the Troubles had wreaked havoc in their lives. Neither cause – that of the IRA nor the Unionists seemed justifiable. In quiet relief, with the forging of an impossible agreement, the people of Ireland safely retreated indoors paying homage to their old ways of life. They realised the value of community. 

    Those brutish 30 years have become a foregone past. The present generation breathes a renewed sense of morality. Violence is not in their books; nor can they comprehend the gravity of the wounds of their forebears. With songs of the IRA sung in pure elation in bars and pubs, the nationalists can keep their fingers crossed. The tide might turn in their favour. The clamour for a united Ireland has been growing. With the whole of Northern Ireland having voted to remain in the EU, while the UK steadfastly opposed, a merger with the the republic lying southwards seems just a matter of time. 

  • The Ticking Bomb in Taiwan

    If there’s one country that deserves to be recognised as one by all states alike, and appreciated for its bravery – an apt example for why size does not determine might – it is Taiwan. Only a handful of countries have established diplomatic ties with Taiwan, the likes of which include four small Pacific islands (possibly wary of their big neighbour’s economic and military clout), a few Central American and Caribbean nations. Honduras is the latest nation to have switched recognition to China. Those that relent to having Taiwan’s embassies opened in their countries, would rather not call it by its name. “Chinese Taipei”, they call it for fear of antagonising the big red power, whose words threatening to cut trade ties would mark the demise of their economies. Even otherwise, China’s leverage has been growing. For instance, last week Saudi Arabia called upon China to help broker a deal with their long-standing rival (and nuclear-capable) Iran. The Saudis could’ve been sending a signal to the West that they have other options to count on if the West remains blasé about taming Iran. How far this signalling has been provocative to the West is questionable given that the US still commands significant authority in the region, one that’ll take China many years, if not never, to cross over.

    Politically, Taiwan may be in a fraught situation. But economically, China needs Taiwan, as much as the latter needs the former. China considers Taiwan its own — a recalcitrant son who fled his family influenced by the western mythic but who nevertheless needs some caning. For seventy years, they oversaw something of a peace that was always on the verge of falling through. China never lets go off any opportunity of intimidating Taiwan, even if it had no reason to. In a show of force last year, China conducted exercises circling Taiwan —military muscle-flexing around an island that is just about 0.37% of its size — following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s contentious visit.

    As this blogger writes this article, Taiwan’s current president Tsai Ing-wen has touched down New York calling US-Taiwan relations “closer than ever.” It is only a matter of time before China steps up its now routine military forays across the Taiwan strait pointing out the ‘dangerous’ aspirations of the island democracy. But more condemnation would only bind the Taiwanese stronger. Turns out a majority in Taiwan were supportive of Pelosi’s visit. Despite the KMT’s calls for unison with the mainland in the name of ethnicity, more and more members of the self-governing island would refrain from identifying themselves with those in the mainland as the country grows more authoritarian under Xi Jinping. Only time can predict what comes off this tangled and menacing hate-love relationship that has become the locus of a renewed geopolitical tussle years after the last great power confrontation that drew the curtains in 1990. The clamour for independence is becoming too loud for the Chinese Communist Party to bear, yet the trade and tourism ties forged by the KMT before the takeover of the Tsai Ing-Wen in 2016 gives hope to those urging on a diplomatic conciliation with China, than an ugly confrontation that would see all major powers intervene. An economically well-to-do nation does not have much to worry, especially when it has firms around the world knocking on its doors for chips. Its semiconductor manufacturing success is one that’s difficult to emulate and which its closely guards, establishing a name for itself in the global arena. It is in the interest of the Chinese to keep animosity at bay (literally) and not attempt unpleasant flexing around the island. In a country that harps on the call for independence day in and day out, this is the most provocative thing it can do. The status quo however doesn’t help much either. The best option is perhaps is to leave Taiwan to its own, and gradually yield to the will of the people. Such an action however demands a little less ego, and a little more thoughtfulness.